2023 in review: Israel, Ukraine, China, USA and the European Union

Like in 2022 we dedicate our last podcast to the past year and together with political scientist Prof. Gerhard Mangott we look back on these very eventful twelve months.

The Middle East conflict, which flared up again after the Hamas terrorist attack on October 7th, will most probably only leave losers and casualties on both sides. Nevertheless, a solution is still a long way off. Many questions remain unanswered – including how to proceed with the Gaza Strip after the expected victory of the Israeli army, whether and how the neighboring Arab countries will get involved and how the policy of détente of recent years between Israel and various Arab countries will continue.

Even though the American administration has done well in many areas, it currently seems unlikely that Joe Biden will be re-elected in the November 2024 elections. Trump has a clear lead in 5 of the 6 swing states: especially since the renewed flare-up of the Middle East conflict, many American Muslims (who normally vote Democrat) resent Biden for taking the Israeli side too one-sidedly. However, Mangott assumes that in the end an anti-Trump coalition will be formed and that Biden will win a second term in office.

More and more voices in the West are suggesting a negotiated solution for Ukraine – not least due to the limited success of the counter-offensive. If Donald Trump wins the elections next year, there are likely to be massive budget cuts to the financial and military support of Ukraine. Without high-quality weapons, we will see a trench war in the coming months. Putin is playing for time because he knows what will happen if Trump is elected next year.

Other topics of this podcast are: the budget cuts in European countries and in the European Union at the expense of many important future issues, the reasons for the strengthening of right-wing parties around the world, the “Xi Jinping era” compared to Mao Tae Tung and the various upcoming elections in 2024 and their potential for change nationally and internationally.

Credits

Image	Title	Author	License
	IP – VIPAC – Jahresrückblick 2023-DE-IPHP	Wolfgang Müller	CC BY SA 4.0