Russia-Ukraine conflict: Reviewing the odds for a major crisis

On December 21st 2021 VIPAC journalists Alexander Stipsits and Christian Janisch spoke with political sciene professor Dr. Gerhard Mangott about growing tensions between Russia and the Ukraine. They discuss the massive deployment of Russian troops along the Ukranian border and review what happened since 2013 when Russia lost most of it´s political influence on Ukraine due to a change in government in Kiev.

Prof. Mangott, who is one of the leading experts on international relations, explains Russia´s complicated relationship with Ukraine and analyzes Russias foreign policy
towards the European Union, NATO and the USA.

As in all conflicts it is important to understand the history of the conflict and the complex nature of a crisis. In this case it is important to know that a sizeable minority of Ukraine´s population are ethnic Russians and that it is of vital importance for Russia´s security concerns that Ukraine does not become a NATO member state or a de facto member state.

After the Russian friendly Ukranian government in 2013 was overthrown in a revolution
Russian President Vladimir Putin decided to annex Crimea and supported an uprising in the Eastern Ukrainian Donbass region that led to a regional military conflict between Ukraine and seperatist forces backed by Russia. Under difficult circumstances a peace deal (Minsk protocol 1 and 2) was brokered and since then political tensions between Ukraine and Russia remained high.

Ukraine is supported in this crises by the USA, NATO and the European Union. The role of the USA is of particular importence, since the United States are the most important NATO member state and maintain the strongest military army in the world.

In this interview Prof. Mangott goes through different scenarios of what could happen in the coming months and explains why the odds for a hot conflict are unpleasently high.

 

Important notes: Univ.-Prof. Dr. Gerhard Mangott is a political scientist and professor of international relations at the University of Innsbruck, Austria.

Alexander Stipsits ia an international journalist, author and filmmaker living in Ceske Budejovice (Czech Republic).

Mag. Christian Janisch, MBA, works as an international journalist for the independent media platform Idealism Prevails in Vienna (Austria).

This interview was first published by our partner VIPAC (Vienna International political analysis and commentary): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=819nur5JmGs

Interesting links: Univ. Prof. Dr. Gerhard Mangott
https://www.gerhard-mangott.at

 

Image Rights:

Selenkskyj – https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Volodymyr_Zelensky_Official_portrait_(cropped).jpg

Biden – https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Joe_Biden_presidential_portrait.jpg

Putin – https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Datei:Vladimir_Putin_(2020-02-20).jpg

Credits

Image	Title	Author	License
	IP – VIPAC – Russia-Ukraine conflict	Wolfgang Müller	CC BY SA 4.0