Ukraine versus Russia: Can there be a real war?

We would like to thank Prof. Gerhard Mangott and Mag. Matthias Penkin for the opportunity to broadcast this interview.

In this episode of GM Analytics Univ. Prof. Dr. Gerhard Mangott looks back at the history of the Ukrainian-Russian conflict: it all started in 2013 with the integration rivalry over Ukraine between Russia and the European Union, which Russia eventually lost in early 2014 when a pro-western government took over – a takeover that Moscow frames as a coup. For strategic reasons the Russians then seized Crimea and its vital harbors for their own Black Sea fleet. After a questionable referendum Russia annexed the peninsula. Russia also supported an uprising in Eastern Ukraine, which couldn‘t have been successful without Russia´s massive help. In 2015 Germany and France negotiated with Russia and Ukraine the Minsk Agreement, which until today hasn’t been fully implemented due too mistakes on both sides. The conflict in East Ukraine still causes civilian casualties nowadays.

In Prof. Mangott´s view the Russians don’t want to annex the provinces of Donetsz and Luhansk: the sanctions against Russia would be strengthened a lot, and Russia would need to pour a lot of money into this region in order to revive it´s economy. The ultimate goal is to disrupt domestic Ukrainian politics due too a simmering conflict; the latter makes it rather impossible for Ukraine to be integrated into any Western organisation, especially NATO. Ukraine joining this military alliance is a no go for Russia for obvious geo-strategic reasons.

Though many people in Donetsz and Luhansk were and still are dissatisfied with the new government in Kiev, the majority in these regions does not want to join the Russian Federation – unlike Crimea.

The mobilisation of Russian forces along the Ukrainian border in the spring of 2021 raised many alarm bells, some analysists speculated about a military intervention of Russia in Ukraine in order to strengthen Putin´s government within Russia due too a patriotic war. Prof. Mangott doesn’t buy this argument, because such a war would be very unpopular among the Russian domestic population and it would bear immense costs on the Russian budget – money Russia simply doesn’t have.

The Ukrainian government has taken several steps to undermine Russian influence in Eastern Ukraine – like closing down free media outlets, targeting personal friends of Vladimir Putin and ignoring the Minsk Agreement by mobilising its military forces and sending reinforcements to the East. However, those reinforcements are a reaction to the mobilisation of rebel forces in Eastern Ukraine. And while the Selenski government ist openly questioning the Minsk Agreement, it also said that it wants to negotiate a new agreement instead, which is more favourable for Ukraine and which should include the USA and the United Kingdom. The goal of Russia´s troop mobilisation is to prevent Ukraine from leaving the Minsk Agreement and from getting closer to NATO.

Further topics of this informative interview are possible Russian moral arguments, Russian bullying of smaller countries and the new attitude of the Biden administration in sending lethal military gear to Ukraine.

This interview was conducted by Mag. Matthias Penkin and was originally published on Prof. Mangott’s YouTube channel

If you want to know more about the work of Prof. Gerhard Mangott please check out the following accounts:

Youtube: https://youtube.com/c/Gerhard_mangott Analytics
Telegram: https://t.me/gerhard_mangott
Instagram: @gerhard_mangott

Credits

Image	Title	Author	License
	Ukraine vs. Russia Can there be a real war	Wolfgang Müller	CC BY SA 4.0